Well. predicting the future is a fool’s game, but here goes: I think it’ll be minimally funded, interfering with its effectiveness. I don’t think debt traps of the IMF / Belt and Road variety are really Russia’s style. They involve too much give and take (at least on the surface or in the propaganda telling). I think it’ll be more along the lines of “we’ve set up this outpost and it is here to help you, acceptance is not optional, we’re here to help.” They’ll just make a deal with some leader of whatever small country, and then just show up and start doing their thing, whatever it is. Also, the USAID type of operations were generally competently executed on the ground by people who at least somewhat cared about the mission (regardless of whether they perceive that mission as helping the people they’re working with, or advancing some other unrelated US interest), or else can fake it. Russian governmental organizational structures at this point are nothing like that.

So, it’ll be poorly funded as I said, and the people on the ground trying to make it happen will be wildly corrupt, kind of lazy in what they are willing to do or make efforts towards, and violent. There is actually some precedent for this in Russia’s efforts to “make friends” with some African countries. Mostly the result was Russian mercenaries tasked with guarding the operation roaming around raping people and stealing money. The people “running the operation” didn’t really care enough about whatever the official mission was to accomplish much of anything at all that I know of, except for sending reports of wild success back home and collecting paychecks and bribes.

I would expect the Russian version of USAID to be more or less more of that if it does get going.

US AID was front for the spooks along with a lot of corruption that comes with shady dealings.

Why would you think Russia would do better here lol

It seems unlikely.