batsforpeace [any, any]

aspiring badposter

  • 234 Posts
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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: October 2nd, 2022

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  • some comments by the Polish osint guy from yesterday…

    About Iranian drones… Iran sold Russia the license and documentation for producing the Shahed 136. Russia paid Iran in gold. The first 1000 were delivered by Iran, Russia also builds them in a factory cluster in Alabuga/Yelabuga. When Russia does drone attacks on Ukraine they use 300-500 for a single operation. Russia uses around 100 a day. Iran used around 500 drones in 12 days and 99% of them were shot down. Some were shot down by US missiles which were supposed to be going to Ukraine but were diverted to US bases in West Asia instead. Jordan agreed for its airspace to be used. Syria didn’t but Israel didn’t care and flew AH-64 Apache helicopters and F-16 Sufa jets over the airspace to shoot the drones down. The fact that Iranian drones didn’t play a larger role in the conflict is puzzling. One explanation is Iran was expecting a long war of attrition against US military bases in the region so they were saving them for after the US officially entered the war. Another theory is Israel destroyed them before they could be used. It’s also possible Iran didn’t have many to begin with because they didn’t think they would be needed. When they did strikes on Saudi targets in the past they only used 3 or 4 per operation (I guess he’s talking about 2019 here… looking around a bit and it seems that was Yemen launching them though, not Iran)

    About the Iranian airforce… The Iranian airforce might not be modern but since the country is large and mountainous they should still have been able to orchestrate some ambush attacks in valleys and by flying close to the earth (similar to North Vietnamese MiG-21 attacks on US forces during the Vietnam war). There were no air battles during these 12 days. There is some footage of Iranian F-4 phantoms flying by, but not much else. Iranian airport runways were damaged, and 10-12 Iranian F-14s were also damaged while on the ground. Also since most of the Iranian airforce planes are old they rely more on coordination with on-the-ground operators/air command, which in turn relies on long range radio-location stations to get info about where the enemy is and directs the Iranian planes where to ambush the enemy. A lot of that on-the-ground infrastructure was damaged or destroyed by Israeli commandos so the pilots were left in a fog without guidance from the ground. Iran’s radio-location stations are also dated technologically so they didn’t detect the F-35s, which have modern stealth tech.

    About Iranian ballistic missiles… Around 4-7% Iranian missiles hit their target in the beginning, the rate increased to 35% and then 50% toward the end of the war, while the missile count went down to 20 per attack, and they were launched every second day. If we average it across the 12 days it was around a 25% hit rate, even taking into account US support like THAADs, MIM-104 Patriots, SM-3s. Since each incoming missile requires a few attempts to shoot down, Israel was starting to run out of missiles fast and some experts say they had enough left for 2 or 3 more days. Iran entered the war with 2000 mid-range (1300-2000km) ballistic missiles, used around 600, around 300 were destroyed/disabled/blocked, so they still had around 800-1000 left. Israel damaged the entrances to Iran’s missile launch sites but attempts were made to re-open them during the war.

    While 65% of Iranian anti-air was destroyed, footage of Israeli F-15s and F-16s shows them carrying 3 or 4 fuel tanks each, so that’s 70-80% of the load occupied by fuel. It’s a long flight to Iran. They were usually carrying maneuvering missiles like Delilah used for precision strikes.

    Israel did more damage to Iran overall but if the war was going well for them they wouldn’t have agreed to a ceasefire/pause. Western media and doctors in Israel are reporting obsessive censorship around damaged targets so that suggests they got hit hard and are trying to hide it. None of the parties in the war felt like they were winning so they decided it’s better to stop for now.