cinnaa42 [none/use name]

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Joined 5 个月前
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Cake day: 2025年2月13日

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  • The trotskyist sects (and the ML ones really) are largely vestigial organisations anyway and mostly end up following the lead of the most advanced edge of various social movements and their emergent leadership. It won’t be them defining any revolutionary moment, but new generations of leaders and organisations that have been coming through for a couple of decades now. Last summer was the closest thing to a revolutionary crisis I’ve seen in this country since I’ve been alive; I’ve never seen a crowd of hundreds of people gather in my city, cheer a speech calling openly for revolution, and march off to physically confront fascists in the streets, either before or since then. The police were completely unable to control the situation at that point and it was left to the masses to do so.

    It wasn’t the Trots who organised any of that but the anarchists, unaffiliated Marxists, and less explicitly political social organisers - the trots were hapless and sluggish, and ended up following our lead. This was only possible because of the severity of the crisis at that moment and the need to act quickly, and it abated once the fascists were no longer terrorising people in the streets. When a more severe and longer-lasting crisis emerges, something that again threatens the immediate physical wellbeing of the masses, this dynamic will assert itself again and there will be very rapid developments that will open up space for a revolution. My money is on either a global famine or an imminent nuclear war triggering this eventually, but an outright fascist putsch following the collapse of the coming Reform government might also do it.













  • We’re reaching the mass “oh fuck this isn’t good” stage of this, which will be followed in a handful of years at most by the mass “oh fuck this is going to get worse and worse until we die” stage as the temperatures continue to rise, and that is where the wheels really will fly off. It’s now impossible to deny that the climate has changed, but the realisation that it’s going to keep changing at an accelerating rate still needs time to sink in. Then we’ll probably get some kind of Climate Stalin (in contrast to the Climate Hitlers who are already in charge), concurrent with migration and death on a scale nobody has ever seen.