He’s hedging and still trying to support some/most of the Trump line, but he isn’t doing the usual 100% blind support of Trump

Look through his posts. He posted cuts close to that. He’s been criticizing more than just this tweet

https://xcancel.com/realalexjones

This is longer than usual - he’s also gotten ratioed on truth social which he never has before. It’s normally 3 or so days for stuff to blow over within his camp. It’s been 9 days now since the DOJ issued their memo that’s sparked this all

I can’t tell you what things will look like for certain, but this is not business as usual. Trump also normally doesn’t directly insult his own supporters. He has been doing just that multiple times

This is the longest I’ve seen his base angry at Trump & Republicans for. He got ratioed on Truth Social for the first time ever. He’s also doing something he rarely does - telling his base directly that their concerns don’t matter to him. Republicans usually manufacture away around issues that still pretends to care about their concerns, but they are not doing that well here

I can’t fully predict the future think this leaves a wound that not all the base comes back from and that matters. If say 10-20% of MAGA people don’t return, that weakens his grip on power. Some percentage going away enables a permissions structure for future criticism on other issues. Wannabe authoritarians need zero criticism to be acceptable to their followers because the tiniest bit can snow ball

Trump has never been ratioed (more comments than likes) on Truth Social before - he just was here. There is something different going on here and an anger that’s lasted longer than normal. Can’t fully predict the future here, but this is not typical MAGA dissent. This seems like it will leave a wound

Even if most of the MAGA base goes back to forgetting about this, just 10-20% not doing the same would have a real impact

Though also when breaking down the study earlier to more experience developers, a similar same pattern of within margin of error change or decrease in productivity shows in that metastudy

They are also not comparing the same metrics here. The earlier study is looking at number of commits and pull requests as a metric for productivity. The other is looking at the time per task

Number of commits / PRs / similar kinds of metrics like lines of aren’t great for measuring productivity in general and especially here. Usage patterns with AI could very easily change your commit pattern and PR patterns without changing how much you are getting done

Also to note for others: NYC only has ranked choice for mayor in primaries (or special elections), so there is no ranked choice in this general election

Not the person you are replying to, but that is severely underestimating the amount of factory farming. They are the dominant method of production

Based on the EPA’s definition of a Concentrated Animal Feeding Operation (i.e factory farm) and USDA census data:

All fish raised in fish farms were considered to be factory-farmed. More than 98% of hens and pigs. For chickens and turkeys, the share was more than 99%. Cows were a bit more likely to be raised outside in fields, with greater space and freedom. Nonetheless, 75% were still fed in concentrated feeding operations for at least 45 days a year.

https://ourworldindata.org/how-many-animals-are-factory-farmed

And even those that are not considered factory farmed don’t always look how one may think, for instance non-factory farmed cows still use plenty of grain feed

Currently, ‘grass-finished’ beef accounts for less than 1% of the current US supply

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aad401

None of this is not limited to the US by any means. For instance in the UK:

There are more than 1,000 US-style mega-farms in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, including some holding as many as a million animals

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/18/uk-has-more-than-1000-livestock-mega-farms-investigation-reveals

Factory farming is unfortunately what scales well. If we want less factory farming we need the industry itself to be smaller. That is no impossible goal. Germany, for instance, has seen its overall meat consumption fall over the last decade

In 2011, Germans ate 138 pounds of meat each year. Today, it’s 121 pounds — a 12.3 percent decline. And much of that decline took place in the last few years, a time period when grocery sales of plant-based food nearly doubled.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23273338/germany-less-meat-plant-based-vegan-vegetarian-flexitarian

This is more than usual. He got ratioed on one of his posts about this on his own platform - a first for him. The anger has also lasted longer than usual for the MAGA base. I suspect most will probably end up going back to him, but if even say 10-20% don’t that’s significant and weakens his grip within the Republican party. It opens the door to some degree of criticism of Trump within right wing media environments

Can’t predict the future here, but this is unusual for MAGA so I wouldn’t write it off as nothing

That’s not what the poll asked. Wording matters a lot in polls. The question was worded as approval of deporting undocumented people in general - not necessarily of how Trump is conducting it. Quite a number of people have bought into the false the right wing narratives that most undocumented people are [insert negative thing here]. Then when they see brutal operations that don’t reflect that narrative they start to oppose the operations - but not always realize the premise was false. When you poll on how Trump is conducting things, the approval falls a lot more

EDIT: which also isn’t to say that those myths can’t be busted, just that such a thing takes longer. Acknowledgement that the current operations are horrifying is the first step towards that

Cheesemaking uses even more dairy than it being in liquid form. Varies depending on what you’re looking at but it can be around a 10:1 ratio. Butter from dairy milk has an even worse conversion

Have to make up for the lost water when turning it into a solid and other stuff you strip from the milk and that’s going to be from even more dairy going into it

This graph is normalized per kg. Graphs look similarly per kcal as well

It’s enough to make it difficult to keep to 2C climate targets on its own. Its not something we should ignore - especially since much of it comes in methane emissions which means reduction in it can be felt quicker and reduce chance of hitting feedback loops. We must tackle all sources

To have any hope of meeting the central goal of the Paris Agreement, which is to limit global warming to 2°C or less, our carbon emissions must be reduced considerably, including those coming from agriculture. Clark et al. show that even if fossil fuel emissions were eliminated immediately, emissions from the global food system alone would make it impossible to limit warming to 1.5°C and difficult even to realize the 2°C target. Thus, major changes in how food is produced are needed if we want to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aba7357

That’s also on top of other environmental issues that it contributes to besides just climate change. Land usage, water usage, waste runoff

Transitioning to plant-based diets (PBDs) has the potential to reduce diet-related land use by 76%, diet-related greenhouse gas emissions by 49%, eutrophication by 49%, and green and blue water use by 21% and 14%, respectively, whilst garnering substantial health co-benefits

https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/14/8/1614/html

And pesticide and fertilizer usage is lower

Thus, shifting from animal to plant sources of protein can substantially reduce fertilizer requirements, even with maximal use of animal manure

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921344922006528

The diet containing more animal products required an additional 10 252 litres of water, 9910 kJ of energy, 186 g of fertilizer and 6 g of pesticides per week in comparison to the diet containing less animal products

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/public-health-nutrition/article/comparing-the-water-energy-pesticide-and-fertilizer-usage-for-the-production-of-foods-consumed-by-different-dietary-types-in-california/14283C0D55AB613D11E098A7D9B546EA

For agriculture at least, the differences are often quite categorical. The best cast production will not get you the same differences as reducing meat consumption

Plant-based foods have a significantly smaller footprint on the environment than animal-based foods. Even the least sustainable vegetables and cereals cause less environmental harm than the lowest impact meat and dairy products [9].

https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/14/8/1614/html

It’s an even larger difference than eliminating all food waste (which we should also work to reduce)

we show that plant-based replacements for each of the major animal categories in the United States (beef, pork, dairy, poultry, and eggs) can produce twofold to 20-fold more nutritionally similar food per unit cropland. Replacing all animal-based items with plant-based replacement diets can add enough food to feed 350 million additional people, more than the expected benefits of eliminating all supply chain food loss.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.1713820115

If we assume that’s the case, half of revenue is still not a byproduct, it’s a coproduct. The other half is still pretty relevant to its value and usage. If 50% of your revenue disappears from something, you’re going to be making a lot less of it

It’s worth noting that soybean meal is not a byproduct. When we look at the most common extraction method for soybean oil (using hexane solvents), soybean meal is still the driver of demand

However, soybean meal is the main driving force for soybean oil production due to its significant amount of productivity and revenues

[…]

soybean meal and hulls contribute to over 60% of total revenues, with meal taking the largest portion of over 59% of total revenue

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0926669017305010

This is even more true of other methods like expelling which is still somewhat commonly used

Moreover, soybean meal is the driving force for the whole process [expelling oil from soy] because it provides over 70% of the total revenue for soy processing by expelling

https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/9/5/87

Good news is that overall arable farmland usage goes down the less meat you eat. Don’t need to use all the same land, you have flexibility to move around production

we show that plant-based replacements for each of the major animal categories in the United States (beef, pork, dairy, poultry, and eggs) can produce twofold to 20-fold more nutritionally similar food per unit cropland. Replacing all animal-based items with plant-based replacement diets can add enough food to feed 350 million additional people, more than the expected benefits of eliminating all supply chain food loss.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.1713820115

Yes, though that doesn’t mean it can’t be stopped. That it can be reduced in some countries is a sign we can make progress on it

Much of the global growth is occurring in developing countries right now who often view increased meat consumption as a symbol of wealth and status (in part due to seeing it highly consumed in the west). Changing expectations and consumption in the west can have a ripple effect outward

To an extent, yes it would likely do that. Though on the other hand running into the maximum capacity limitations would not look pretty. Even countries that have a just bit higher grass-fed production than others have a fair number of issues (and still use plenty of supplemental grain)

For instance, in New Zealand, they use a massive amount of synthetic fertilizer on grasslands to try to make it keep up for dairy production

The large footprint for milk in Canterbury indicates just how far the capacity of the environment has been overshot. To maintain that level of production and have healthy water would require either 12 times more rainfall in the region or a 12-fold reduction in cows.

[…]

The “grass-fed” marketing line overlooks the huge amounts of fossil-fuel-derived fertiliser used to make the extra grass that supports New Zealand’s very high animal stock rates.

https://theconversation.com/11-000-litres-of-water-to-make-one-litre-of-milk-new-questions-about-the-freshwater-impact-of-nz-dairy-farming-183806

Or in the UK and Ireland where grass-fed production leads to deforestation and they still need additional grain on top of it

Most of the UK and Ireland’s grass-fed cows and sheep are on land that might otherwise be temperate rainforest – arable crops tend to prefer drier conditions. However, even if there were no livestock grazing in the rainforest zone – and these areas were threatened by other crops instead – livestock would still pose an indirect threat due to their huge land footprint

[…]

Furthermore, most British grass-fed cows are still fed crops on top of their staple grass

https://theconversation.com/livestock-grazing-is-preventing-the-return-of-rainforests-to-the-uk-and-ireland-198014

We should push for large institutional change, but don’t ignore individual change either. Problem is how will you get said governments to act if people aren’t also stepping up and they expect backlash to acting? The more people expect it to be cheap and highly consumed, the harder it will be for them to act. Moving people away from meat individually makes it easier. Movements that succeed usually have both individual and institutional change

Institutional change that is achievable at the current moment is smaller. There’s been some success with things like changing the defaults to be plant-based (which is good and we should continuing to push for that), but cutting subsides is going to be an uphill battle until a larger number of people change their consumption patterns